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Sample Bahamas Marine Weather Forecast


Wx Update, Bahamas, Sat13, 11a

10am ASCAT: C & SE Bahamas N-NE@6-12 / 70W-76W from 24N-30N NNW-NNE@10-18, highest NE / 30N-40N from 72W-75W N-NE@10-17 / 68W-72W NNW-NE@15-25.

BUOYs:
120mi NE of T&C 330@13-19, 17'/9-17secNNE / KyW 045@16-22 / FwyRk 330@10-15 (was 15-25k NE@15-25 thru 2am) / WEnd 010-040@3-10 / Canaveral 010@10-17, 10'/7-17sec / StAug 350@10-18, 8-9'/8-17secE / Charleston 020@14-23, 6-7'/5-16sc / FryPnShl 030@14-21, 7'/6-17secE / Hatteras 010@18-23, 10'/7-16sec / ChesByEntr 000@13-18.

IMAGERY:
Isolated showers & mild squalls throughout region, but the only activity that looks significant is N of 32N in area E of 68W...and maybe some mild-moderate squalls 27N-32N E of 70W. Clear skies from GulfStream to SE US & N FL Coasts.

SYNOPSIS:
Today...GALE 34N/63W, with N@25-40 E of 73W from 30N-38N / W@20-30 from 24N-32N, E of 68W. S of 24N toward N Caribbean W@10-15, with N under 10k along N Caribbean where weak RIDGE lies. Bahamas to FL & entire US Coast N-NNE@10-20, highest N of Bahamas, but 20-25k NC.

Tomorrow...Sub-GALE LO shifts E of 60W along 33N...with wind similar in direction but about 5k less surrounding LO. S of 24N unchanged. Bahamas & FL & US E Coast moderates to N-NE@5-15 as RIDGE just inland along US E Coast weakens.

Mon15...Weakening LO well E of 60W near 32N...with mostly N@10-20 along 65W from 36N-24N / S of 24N W-N@5-10. Weak (wind-less) RIDGE NovaScotia...Hatteras...GulfStream off Carolinas...FL-GA border. Light S-SW wind may establish along US Coast N of Canaveral late, as RIDGE continues shifting E. Bahamas clock N-E 12k-or-less.

Tue16...Weak RIDGE 38N/65W...30N/68W...N Bahamas...FLKeys. Along 65W from Bermuda-E Caribbean NNE-ENE@10 / moving across RIDGE S&W&N of Bermuda winds clock E-S@5-15, with SE-S@10-15 Hatteras N-ward. Bahamas ESE-S@10-15. PROBLEM area is N&W of RIDGE in area S&W of Hatteras...problem is TN-KY LO trailing strong ColdFRONT into C GOMEX, with upper-level support. Large-scale lift/dynamics may support S@20-30+ from just N of Bahamas thru entire SE US, and may support wind stronger-than-forecast in Bahamas. Euro predicts 40-50k 850mb (5000') winds off Carolinas, which could easily be present at the surface in squalls near Carolinas late Tue16.

Wed17...GALE Maine...trailing STRONG & SQUALLY ColdFRONT 40N/68W...32N/74W. FRONT weakens rapidly WSW of 32N/74W...C FL, where it stalls. RIDGE 30N/65W...Nassau...S FL, with light wind. S of RIDGE ENE-SE 10k-or-less. N of RIDGE S-W winds moderate ahead of FRONT S of 32N...but build SW@25-40 (higher in squalls) N of 32N. NW of FRONT NW@5-10 S&W of CpLookout / W-N@15-25 N&E of Hatteras.

OUTLOOK:
ColdFRONT weakens, with lighter wind most areas late Wed17 into Thu18 morning...but next LO moving ENE thru GreatLakes Wed17 night-Thu18 triggers 2nd ColdFRONT (a back-door FRONT), which may drive W@20-30 within 300mi of SE US Thu18...2nd FRONT merges with 1st FRONT Thu18...then drives merged FRONT to Bermuda...T&C Fri19, with entire W Atlantic seeing W-NW@20-40 (highest N of 30N Fri19...clocking with only slight moderation Sat20-Sun21.

F'cst: Precip, all Bahamas: only a few isolated showers, mostly not with significant wind...chance for a few isolated squalls to 30k NW Bahamas Tue16-Wed17.

WIND (wind in squalls see Precip):
Abaco: 020@15G19 today, 10-13k tomorrow; 060@10 Mon15 morning, 100-deg later; SE-S@10-20 Tue16; variable under 10k Wed17.
Exumas: 010-020@15G20 this morning, 14k later, 12k tomorrow; 060@10 Mon15 morning; 080@13 later; 110@13-18 Tue16 morning, ESE-SSE later; E-SE@10 Wed17.
SE Bahamas: 000@14 decreasing to 10-12k today-tomorow; 030@10-13 later tomorrow, 7-10k Mon15 morning; E@12 late; 110@13-18 Tue16, 10-13k Wed17.

SEAS:
Abaco: SWELL peaks 15'/14sec from NE today, 12' tomorrow, 9' Mon15; 5-6'/10sec Tue16, 4-5' Wed17...wind-chop 4-6' today, 2-3' tomorrow, 2' Mon15, 3-6' Tue16, 2' Wed17.
C Bahamas: SWELL peaks 14'/14sec from NNE today, 12' tomorrow, 9' Mon15; 6'/10sec from NE Tue16, 5' Wed17...wind-chop 4-6' today, 3-4' tomorrow, 2-3' Mon15, 3-5' Tue16, 2' Wed17. SE Bahamas: SWELL 13'/14sec from N-NNE today, 11' tomorrow; 9'/12sec from NNE Mon15; 6'/10sec Tue16, 5-6' Wed17...wind-chop 3-4' today, 2-3' late-tomorrow, 2' Mon15, 3-5' Tue16, 3' Wed17.

CROSSING:
Mostly N winds moderate today, but seas remain too large for most tastes today. NE swell persists tomorrow...but very-light N wind which clocks NE Mon15 should allow mild motor-sailing crossings in Both directions on Both Routes.

Late Mon15-Tue16 probably better W-bound due to building E-SE winds, but uncertain due to risk for squalls Tue16.

Wed17 is moderately-high-confidence motoring opportunity with L&V winds & mild seas...but window closes sometime Thu18 as strong NW-N winds arrive with FRONT.

Next opportunity behind FRONT is W-bound with E@15-20 beginning Sat20 or Sun21, with little change early in the week of Mon22.

N ROUTE: 010@14G18/wind-chop 6' today; N@8-13/3-4' tomorrow, clocking NE tomorrow night into Mon15 morning, 100-deg later Mon15; ESE-SE@13-20 & gusty/3-7' Mon15 night, SE-S Tue16; variable under 10k/2' Wed17...isolated squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL 14'/14sec from NE today, 11' tomorrow; 8'/12sec from NE-ENE Mon15; 5-6'/10sec Tue16, 4' Wed17.
S ROUTE: almost identical.

N AREAS:
--C FL: N@10-15/wind-chop 4' today, 5-10k/2' tonight-Mon15 morning, E later Mon15; S-SW@20/6' Mon15 night-Tue16; variable under 10k/2' Wed17...isolated squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL similar to N Route.
--N FL & GA: N-NNE@10-15/wind-chop 4' today; N@5-10/2' tomorrow, E under 10k tomorrow night' SE building to 10k Mon15; S-SW@20-25/6-8' Mon15 night, possibly 20-30k/7-10' Tue16; variable under 15k/4-5' Wed17...a few squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL 9'/14sec from ENE today, 8' tomorrow, 7' late, 5'/12sec Mon15-Tue16, 2-3' Wed17.
--SC: NNE@20/wind-chop 6' decreasing to 15k/4' today; N@10/2' tomorrow; L&V tomorrow night-Mon15; S@10-20/3-6' Mon15 night; S-W@20-30/7-10' Tue16; W-NW@5-15/2-4' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40k Tue16. SWELL 13'/14sec from ENE today, 9' tomorrow; 5-6'/11sec Mon15-Tue16, 2-3' Wed17.
--NC: N-NNE@20/wind-chop 6' today, 15k/4' late; N@10/2' tomorrow morning, 5k later; becoming S@5 Mon15, 10k Mon15 night; S-W@20-35/8-13' Tue16; variable under 20k/6' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40-50k Tue16 afternoon-night. SWELL same as NC.
--Chesapeake-to-Hatteras: N@20/wind-chop 6' decreasing to 15k/4' today, 10k/2' tomorrow morning; L&V late tomorrow-Mon15; S@10 Mon15 night; SSE-SW@10 building to 20-30k/7-10' Tue16, SW-W late, NW overnight into Wed17 morning; variable under 20k/6' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40k Tue16 afternoon-night. SWELL decreases to 15'/13sec from ENE-E today, 12' tomorrow morning, 10' later, 7'/10sec Mon15, 6' Tue16, 3' from E Wed17.

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